Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 35.182782 39.738153 45.101449 52.008346 60.866882 72.153376 88.181353
2025-04-27 29.042937 34.631301 41.887444 52.435688 68.261759 92.995768 139.902781
2025-05-04 25.241885 31.267249 39.669761 53.112072 76.257074 120.771238 243.204580
2025-05-11 22.482608 28.628005 37.666136 53.266587 83.538273 155.241609 483.046394
2025-05-18 20.205454 26.227511 35.426015 52.230004 88.131198 191.246634 1164.215453
2025-05-25 18.669537 24.659871 34.135341 52.414681 95.528800 251.282062 14689.418231
2025-06-01 17.329261 23.195582 32.729166 51.941301 101.249387 325.411100 NaN
2025-06-08 16.163884 21.861181 31.319922 51.069485 105.566642 417.985077 NaN
2025-06-15 15.201628 20.747232 30.129630 50.359385 110.165928 555.996706 NaN
2025-06-22 14.412242 19.836664 29.178150 49.950505 115.776936 795.348766 NaN
2025-06-29 13.597851 18.814133 27.897301 48.495726 116.845403 1038.022298 NaN
2025-07-06 13.380863 18.771571 28.439710 51.573416 139.333464 4522.512289 NaN
2025-07-13 12.780160 18.031107 27.564898 50.906193 145.047592 24527.745120 NaN
2025-07-20 12.342568 17.542074 27.134396 51.343600 157.697911 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 11.964308 17.128496 26.808637 52.008283 173.475101 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.576181 16.669391 26.339732 52.162800 187.137947 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.130134 16.078066 25.539011 51.163731 191.579564 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.809877 15.695713 25.145363 51.343250 207.050601 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.468033 15.253888 24.584752 50.886251 217.011904 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.124292 14.790639 23.940805 50.043679 222.601198 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.815048 14.376224 23.372828 49.357082 229.697151 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.545728 14.023201 22.914089 48.961625 240.582024 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.228002 13.565875 22.193160 47.553902 236.781730 NaN NaN